Poll shows which party has the edge ahead of midterm elections for Congress

Democrats hold a slight advantage heading into the midterm elections in a new poll from The New York Times and Siena University.

The poll found that 48% of registered voters would support a Democratic candidate if the midterm elections were held today, compared to just 43% for a Republican candidate. The poll also showed skepticism toward President Donald Trump’s policies, with 47% of registered voters saying they ‘strongly disapprove’ of how he is handling his job as president.

The poll surveyed 1,625 registered voters nationwide from Jan. 12 to 17 and advertised a margin of error of 2.8%.

A 51% majority of Americans also say that Trump’s policies have made their lives less affordable.

In total, 49% of registered voters say the country is worse off now than it was a year ago, compared to 32% who say it is better.

The polling lines up with other recent surveys that have found many Americans souring on the president and his agenda.

The president’s approval rating stands at 45% in the latest Wall Street Journal poll, at 41% in Reuters/Ipsos, and an average of all the most recent national polls compiled by Real Clear Politics puts Trump’s approval at 42%, with 55% giving him a thumbs down on the job he’s doing.

Trump started his second term in positive territory, but his approval ratings sank below water last March and have slowly edged deeper into negative territory in the ensuing months.

The percentage of registered voters saying the country is on the right track has held steady since April, according to the survey. And Trump continues to hold support from Republicans, with four in five GOP registered voters saying the U.S. is on the right track.

Deep concerns over inflation boosted Trump and Republicans to sweeping victories at the ballot box in 2024, as they won back the White House and Senate and kept their House majority.

But Democrats say their decisive victories in November’s 2025 elections, and their overperformances in special elections and other ballot box showdowns last year, were fueled by their laser focus on affordability amid persistent inflation.

Trump’s approval ratings on the economy are, on average, slightly lower than his overall approval ratings.

The president’s numbers on the issue of illegal immigration, another issue that helped lift him to a re-election victory, have also eroded over the past year. The issue is once again front-and-center, following this month’s fatal shooting of a Minnesota woman by an ICE agent as she protested the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement efforts.

Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.